As of this date: 25,426 federal prisoners have submitted applications and 4,864 applications are "currently under attorney review."
What would 4,864 commutations look like, from an historical perspective? Because the language of clemency grants has changed over time, it is only possible to go back so far in time in data exercises. Furthermore, aggregate data gathered by the Department of Justice are erroneous, because more than one president served in the same fiscal year in the early 1900s. The best data (ours) suggests that the distribution of commutations of sentence, per year of the term, for comparable presidents, looks like this:
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